Bitcoin enters late October 2025 coming off a sharp pullback that turned what is usually a strong month into one of the weakest in years. The selloff has been driven by broader risk-off sentiment and choppy flows into the new spot ETFs, all against a post-halving backdrop where issuance has already been cut in half.
Where the market stands now
BTC slipped to three-month lows as equities wavered and the dollar firmed, pulling liquidity out of risk assets. The drop accelerated after a clean break of short-term trend support on the daily chart, pushing funding and open interest lower as fast money de-risked. Perp markets briefly flipped into discount, signaling cautious leverage rather than outright capitulation. Spot volumes clustered on down days, but the tape also showed sharp intraday reversals—classic late-correction behavior. ETF flow prints have swung between large net inflows and outflows, turning price action into a flow-driven market rather than a purely macro one.
Strategists who remain longer-term bullish acknowledge that a quick undercut of round numbers cannot be ruled out before buyers reassert. For now, the market is trading the path of least resistance: follow the flows, fade the extremes.
The post-halving regime
Bitcoin completed its fourth halving on April 19–20, 2024 at block 840,000, cutting the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC and reducing new supply to roughly 450 BTC per day. Historically, the months after a halving are uneven: sharp rallies alternate with deep shakeouts as supply pressure eases but demand remains cyclical.
The difference this cycle is the presence of U.S. spot ETFs, which act as an always-on demand valve—daily creations and redemptions can amplify both rallies and drawdowns.
Miner behavior has also shifted; with lower issuance, treasury management and opportunistic selling around volatility spikes matter more than before.
Put together, the current regime blends structurally tighter supply with tactically noisy demand, which helps explain why trend breaks have been fast and recoveries equally sudden. The larger pattern still resembles prior post-halving periods, but the path is choppier because ETF flows now sit at the center of price discovery.
3–6 month scenarios
Base case
If macro stress cools and ETF flows stabilize net positive, BTC has room to retrace toward prior highs over the next quarter. Watch for a rebuild in open interest with neutral funding, rising spot participation, and breadth improving across majors. That setup would mirror previous post-halving recoveries: messy first, constructive later.
Downside risk
A sequence of heavy ETF redemptions or a broader risk-off in equities could extend the correction. A brief undercut of a big round level—even below 100k—remains possible before value buyers step in. Prolonged time below that area would argue for a slower, base-building winter.
Upside surprise
Back-to-back large creation days in ETFs, supportive inflation or growth prints, or a major catalyst onchain could compress the timeline. When liquidity flips risk-on, BTC has a habit of erasing weeks of losses in a handful of sessions. In that case, a fast move toward the old highs becomes the path of least resistance.
What to watch
Price and trend
Daily structure around recent swing lows and the 50/100-day moving averages. Look for downside wicks on high volume, declining perp discounts, and higher lows on intraday timeframes—signals that sellers are tiring.
Flows
Net creations/redemptions across spot ETFs and the mix of spot versus perp volume. A cluster of positive flow days, plus rising Coinbase/US spot share, tends to precede trend repair more reliably than sentiment polls.
Macro tape
Equity volatility, dollar strength, and front-end rate expectations. Calmer stocks and a softer dollar usually ease pressure on crypto beta; a risk flare-up does the opposite, especially when ETF flow is already fragile.
Bottom line
Structurally, bitcoin is in a lower-issuance era with a powerful new distribution channel in spot ETFs. Tactically, the next 3–6 months hinge on whether October’s risk-off breaks fade or snowball. A quick undercut cannot be ruled out, but sustained positive ETF flows and a steadier macro backdrop would favor a recovery path into early 2026.